Seven OPEC+ producers extend pause on oil output increases into November

Seven of the world’s large oil exporters decided on Sunday 4 October 2026 to leave their production targets where they were for a second consecutive month. Meeting by video link, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed, in the words of a statement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), “to maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026”.

The seven belong to OPEC+, the alliance of OPEC members and other producers, including Russia. They are the countries that announced additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023 and have since met monthly to decide how quickly to restore that output.

The numbers

A table published with the statement set each country’s required production for November. Saudi Arabia’s was 10.478 million barrels a day and Russia’s 9.949 million. Iraq followed at 4.431 million, then Kuwait at 2.676 million, Kazakhstan at 1.628 million, Algeria at 1.007 million and Oman at 841,000. Together that comes to 31.01 million barrels a day.

The same figures had applied in October. At their previous meeting on 6 September the seven had likewise decided to carry September’s levels forward by a month.

The Nigerian business publication Nairametrics reported that the pause followed four consecutive monthly increases of 188,000 barrels a day each, approved for June, July, August and September. Reuters reported in September that the last of those increases completed the phased reversal of a supply cut of 1.65 million barrels a day first agreed in 2023.

Targets on paper

What the group agrees and what it actually pumps have diverged. Reuters reported after the September meeting that OPEC+ “still produces far below its targets because of the war”, and that the Iran conflict continued to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the alliance’s influence over prices and market share.

“Opec+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” Jorge Leon of the consultancy Rystad Energy told the agency. “The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.”

Nairametrics offered a further explanation for the gap between headline quotas and real supply: some members have limited production capacity, while others are required to pump less than their quota to compensate for having exceeded it earlier. In the October statement the seven again “reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity” with the Declaration of Cooperation, the agreement that underpins the alliance.

A smaller table and a bigger decision ahead

The group that takes these monthly decisions has shrunk. Reuters noted that the United Arab Emirates took part in them until it left OPEC in May.

The more consequential choices lie beyond the monthly schedule. According to Reuters, a further layer of production cuts covering most of the 21 countries in the wider alliance remains in place until the end of 2026. Before deciding how to unwind it, the group has to assess each member’s production capacity in order to set the baselines from which 2027 quotas will be calculated. Sources told the agency in early September that this debate was likely to take place later in the year and that output increases were therefore likely to be paused for the fourth quarter.

Leon expected attention to move in that direction. “The focus now shifts away from monthly production adjustments and towards the much more consequential debate over 2027,” he said.

Neither the September nor the October statement said anything about policy beyond the following month. The seven countries said they would continue to meet monthly, with the next meeting set for 1 November 2026.